By Steve Clemons

The canada geese are back in town, and here’s a few of them just off my back porch in Chestertown, Maryland.

Intrade’s future markets are surging in support of a likely Obama win in the presidential race. Just a couple of weeks ago, one could buy an Obama contract for 40, and it’s now 77.7. McCain’s contract is now at 23.1 after having been at about 56.

German Bundestag Member Volker Beck is a great guy — a hard-driving idealist who works hard on environmental improvement, gay rights, and global human rights. Beck was detained and beaten up by Russian police when he tried to advocate for a gay rights parade in Moscow.

If he does, then this exchange has got to be a top ten example of a self-inflicted mortal wound.

In a documentary titled “Torturing Democracy” that has recently aired on PBS, former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage stated: There is no question in my mind — there’s no question in any reasonable human being, that this is torture. I’m ashamed that we’re even having this discussion.

I’ve had a number of emails from folks suggesting I am disrespecting the hardworking campaign canvassers and volunteers working hard on the Obama campaign for having reported that at least two paying guests at the Obama fundraiser last night in Philadelphia thought that there was a bit of “inevitability” woven into the evening.

I have heard from two attendees who along with 198 other business and social leaders had dinner with Barack Obama last night in Philadelphia. One said that the whole evening “looked like a victory lap to me.” The other attendee agreed with that assessment. Overconfidence and the posture of inevitability KILLS campaigns.

The U.S. will now remove North Korea from the state sponsors of terror list. Vice President Cheney and John Bolton must have migraines today. Congratulations to Condoleezza Rice and Assistant Secretary of State for Christopher Hill.

Watch out for her bite.

Free Webcam Chat at Ustream Four years ago, Osama bin Laden chronicler and CNN and New America Foundation terrorism expert PETER BERGEN, The Torture Papers: The Road to Abu Ghraib author and NYU Center on Law and Security Director KAREN GREENBERG, and I organized a day long mega-meeting of the world’s best and brightest al…