GEORGE BUSH IS WINNING BIG, LEADING IN THE POPULAR VOTE and also pulling in enough electoral votes. Congratulations to my Republican friends. A huge number of people turned out and want this President. Tom Daschle seems to be going down to defeat.

TONIGHT, I ATTENDED THE D.C. GATHERINGS OF BOTH the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee, as well as two other good parties. When I left my house tonight, I thought Kerry had won — based on exit polls, gossip, spin, Zogby, and others in the DNC and RNC with whom I have spoken….

CHRIS NELSON OF THE NELSON REPORT IS ONE OF THE BEST INSIDER’S INSIDERS in Washington. I have been trying to reach him tonight to secure permission to reprint this excellent piece from his private newsletter but have thus far been unsuccessful. So, hopefully I will be forgiven.

KERRY — BUSH PA 53 46 FL 51 49 NC 48 52 OH 51 49 MO 46 54 AK 47 53 MI 51 47 NM 50 49 LA 43 56 CO 48 51 AZ 45 55 MN 54 44 WI 52 47 IA 49 49 So far, it looks my earlier electoral college count of…

THIS STORY ABOUT HISTORIC VOTER TURN-OUT IN NEW MEXICO is true of most states around the nation, not just the battle-ground states.

JOHN ZOGBY HAS LAID IT ON THE LINE SAYING BUSH WILL LOSE tonight, and decisively. . .sort of. Every wise sage in the media whom I have heard from tonight has said to tread carefully on this exit poll stuff. Florida is real close they say.

My count has Kerry at 304 electoral college votes; Bush at 227; and Iowa still tied. Obviously, there is a dangerous, slippery slope in putting too much faith in exit poll data. But there it is….so far.

HERE IS THE LATEST FROM SLATE‘S JACK SHAFER: Florida Kerry 50 Bush 49 Ohio Kerry 50 Bush 49 Pennsylvania Kerry 54 Bush 45 Wisconsin Kerry 51 Bush 46 Michigan Kerry 51 Bush 47 Minnesota Kerry 58 Bush 40 Nevada Kerry 48 Bush 50 New Mexico Kerry 50 Bush 48 North Carolina Kerry 49 Bush 51…

A LOT OF PLACES ARE POSTING THE LATEST EXIT POLL DATA. I will too. But this short note came in from a well-placed DNC source: kerry slightly ahead in colorado, slightly behind in florida. scattered reports of voter intimidation, but overall dnc satisfied with how things are going. big surprise — slightly ahead in virginia….

TONIGHT, I AM GOING TO THREE ELECTION PARTIES and then probably watching the post-4 a.m. segments on my bedroom TV.