By Steve Clemons

KERRY — BUSH PA 53 46 FL 51 49 NC 48 52 OH 51 49 MO 46 54 AK 47 53 MI 51 47 NM 50 49 LA 43 56 CO 48 51 AZ 45 55 MN 54 44 WI 52 47 IA 49 49 So far, it looks my earlier electoral college count of…

THIS STORY ABOUT HISTORIC VOTER TURN-OUT IN NEW MEXICO is true of most states around the nation, not just the battle-ground states.

JOHN ZOGBY HAS LAID IT ON THE LINE SAYING BUSH WILL LOSE tonight, and decisively. . .sort of. Every wise sage in the media whom I have heard from tonight has said to tread carefully on this exit poll stuff. Florida is real close they say.

My count has Kerry at 304 electoral college votes; Bush at 227; and Iowa still tied. Obviously, there is a dangerous, slippery slope in putting too much faith in exit poll data. But there it is….so far.

HERE IS THE LATEST FROM SLATE‘S JACK SHAFER: Florida Kerry 50 Bush 49 Ohio Kerry 50 Bush 49 Pennsylvania Kerry 54 Bush 45 Wisconsin Kerry 51 Bush 46 Michigan Kerry 51 Bush 47 Minnesota Kerry 58 Bush 40 Nevada Kerry 48 Bush 50 New Mexico Kerry 50 Bush 48 North Carolina Kerry 49 Bush 51…

A LOT OF PLACES ARE POSTING THE LATEST EXIT POLL DATA. I will too. But this short note came in from a well-placed DNC source: kerry slightly ahead in colorado, slightly behind in florida. scattered reports of voter intimidation, but overall dnc satisfied with how things are going. big surprise — slightly ahead in virginia….

TONIGHT, I AM GOING TO THREE ELECTION PARTIES and then probably watching the post-4 a.m. segments on my bedroom TV.

CONSERVATIVE POLITICAL SCIENTIST HENRY NAU SAID IT ALL YESTERDAY. When asked what message a Bush loss would send terrorists and the rest of the world if this President were to lose the election, he responded that the message America would be sending is: “DEMOCRACY.

AS REPORTED BY THE ASSOCIATED PRESS: Ten years ago: The Senate Intelligence Committee released a report saying CIA Director R. James Woolsey’s response to the Aldrich Ames spy case was “seriously inadequate,” but that his predecessors were ultimately to blame for the scandal. The original Senate Select Committee on Intelligence report is here.

I STILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO TO GET INTO JOSH MARSHALL’S league, but I just received my monthly web visits statistics for October, which are 250,683. Josh and Wonkette get more than this many visits by breakfast, but for a new site, I’m pleased. September visits were 140,386.