Intrade’s future markets are surging in support of a likely Obama win in the presidential race.
Just a couple of weeks ago, one could buy an Obama contract for 40, and it’s now 77.7. McCain’s contract is now at 23.1 after having been at about 56. If one feels strongly that McCain is going to lose this race, you could make a tidy bundle by shorting the McCain contract.
Intrade’s electoral vote predictor now has Obama scoring 364 votes and McCain 174.
The Washington Post on the other hand has a more sober assessment of 168 solid Dem votes, 174 solid GOP votes, and 196 swing votes not fully solidified.
It is interesting that McCain’s solid 174 are exactly the same as Intrade’s 174 — which means that according to Intrade’s scales, Obama is picking up just about every state that isn’t solidly GOP. Chris Bowers also takes a nice whack at the Washington Post numbers.
On other fronts, Zogby is just out with a release that Obama is at 49% and McCain slips to 43%.
538.com has Obama turning 349 electoral votes in with McCain at 189.
Finally, Gallup has Obama at 51% and McCain at 42%.
— Steve Clemons
Editor’s Note: Thanks to Brad DeLong for alerting me to some of this material.
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