I have been 95% sure it was over — but the administration has always tenaciously held on to that 5% chance — just as those who opposed Bolton held their grip as well when the administration “acted” as if it had the Bolton nomination ready to ram through the Senate. It’s over.

I think Donald Rumsfeld is substantially responsible for many of the most vexing problems facing the United States today in the Middle East, but George W. Bush and Vice President Cheney trump him on the accountability front.

I’m heading back from Vienna, Austria to Washington, DC today. Had several interesting meetings, particularly with IAEA officials here. The technical expertise of those who work in the guts of the IAEA is extremely impressive. Looks like the Baker-Hamilton report is getting leaked in bits and pieces.

Read Nawaf Obaid today in the Washington Post. Read it carefully. The preamble: In February 2003, a month before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, the Saudi foreign minister, Prince Saud al-Faisal, warned President Bush that he would be “solving one problem and creating five more” if he removed Saddam Hussein by force.

I will be on the “Sam Seder Show” on Air America Radio at 10:30 am EST today — chatting with Sam about all things foreign policy here from Vienna, Austria. But on a less optimistic note, take everything that the normally unsentimental, cold-eyed Anthony Cordesman writes below and worsen it by an order of magnitude….

This news is partly good. Nancy Pelosi has dropped her bid for Alcee Hastings to chair the House Intelligence Committee.

I’m rushing, but I wanted to share this email I scribbled out this morning. It’s a bit blunt, says more than I perhaps should at this point — but Philip Zelikow‘s departure as Condi Rice’s Counselor is very bad for those hoping for a more enlightened Bush administration foreign policy course.

It will probably be a small gathering — but those who want to meet me tomorrow morning in Vienna, Austria — I will be meeting some folks at about 11 am (at Cafe Central) (I might be a little late as I will be coming directly from the Airport).

I hear that Leon Trotsky used to hang out at the Cafe Central in Vienna. I will be arriving Wednesday morning in Vienna and departing Friday to participate in a conference on “The Role of Think Tanks in the Political Process of the EU and the US” sponsored by the Austrian Marshall Plan Foundation.

Edward Luce and Demetri Sevastopulo have a thoughtful piece in the Financial Times anticipating the impact of the Iraq War narrative on the American psyche, particularly as of Sunday when the “Iraq War will enter its 1,347th day, thus overtaking the US’s involvement in the second world war.” Some key excerpts.