It’s a pdf — and it’s really wonky — but the tenacious numbers cruncher Dean Baker, has written up a serious study of the economic impact of House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s plans for Medicare.
The CEPR paper, titled “The Ryan Medicare Plan: Winners and Losers” was co-written by Dean Baker and David Rosnick.
In short, he shows that the rising costs of health care and the diminishing coverage from the government for elders will capsize the savings of most elders across the country — while generating huge transfers to health care providers and insurers.
The conclusion of the Baker-Rosnick paper:
This paper shows the implication of the CBO analysis of House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan’s plan for overhauling the Medicare system. According to the CBO analysis, rising health care costs will quickly make a Medicare equivalent plan unaffordable to most beneficiaries. Also, since costs rise as beneficiaries age, a Medicare equivalent plan will become less affordable to the same beneficiary as she gets older. Finally, this plan implies a huge transfer of income from beneficiaries to health care providers and insurers, since the cost of delivering the same quality care will be substantially higher under Representative Ryan’s plan than under the existing Medicare system.
Well worth reading in full.
— Steve Clemons