I think Chris Bowers at Open Left just has a terrific, no-nonsense read on where the Democratic and Republican contenders stand in Iowa.
He then runs through what various scenarios in Iowa mean for New Hampshire and then nationally.
And here’s his national comment:
Iowa and New Hampshire’s impact on the national campaign?
According to fladem, the average national swing for a sweep of Iowa and New Hampshire is 33%. This means that if either Clinton or Obama win Iowa, and thus New Hampshire, the nomination almost certainly breaks their way.
If Edwards sweeps the two states, then it looks like a close two-way campaign between Edwards and Clinton. If Edwards wins Iowa, and Clinton hangs on to take New Hampshire, then it looks like Clinton wins the nomination. If Edwards wins Iowa, and Obama hangs on to win New Hampshire, then all three should have a good shot and it is anyone’s guess as to what happens next.
I have to admit, the political junkie in me is kind of pulling for that result. This is great political theater, and I don’t want it to all end on Thursday night, or even next Tuesday night.
I’m in Reno, Nevada right now about to go for a run. One odd thing I just saw was a Ron Paul sign in the grass outside the local Neptune Society here. Odd placement.
— Steve Clemons