Kosovo did, and the U.S. immediately recognized it.
Now, David Rothkopf has been hearing rumblings that the little-left-to-lose Palestinians may declare independence and the creation of their state, without necessarily having the state’s borders in their control.
Rothkopf lays out a plausible scenario that Iran’s nuclear pretensions force the U.S. to more closely ally with Arab states in the region, thus finally forcing a deal on Palestine, whether Israel is on board or not.
I still have my doubts that the U.S. is anywhere near that point yet. But the fact remains that when the Palestinians have really lost hope that a peace process will lead to a state for their citizens, they may very well self declare.
From Rothkopf’s interesting essay:
In any event, I was thinking about this phrase the other day in light of the on-going concerns regarding Iran’s nuclear program. Because indeed, as President Obama acknowledged in a recent interview with the New York Times’s David Sanger, were Iran to become “nuclear capable” it would effectively be the same as actually having produced a weapon. Capability is the line you don’t want a proliferator to cross … and were Iran to nudge across that line, it would likely set in motion a wide ranging chain of events that would almost certainly include: heavy incoming rhetorical fireworks, strategic backtracking by countries who resisted sanctions, tactical consternation from the Israelis as they recognize the world is going to do precious little to address what they see as a critical threat and a full scale diplomatic assault from the United States, designed to shape the alliances that will form the containment network/nuclear umbrella club that will be our post-nuclear Iran “strategy.”
However, in recent conversations concerning this possible shift in the situation in the Middle East with diplomats from several countries in Asia, the greater Middle East, and Latin America, another perceived consequence emerged: There was a universal sense that Israel is becoming more isolated and the United States is becoming more dependent for its regional strategy on Arab states. Further, as a result of the likely demands those states will make for action by the United States to help move the Israelis along toward a resolution of their conflict with the Palestinians … and the perception that Obama must make a move in the Muslim world to fulfill the now questioned promise of his Cairo speech … and due to the view that Israel is more isolated than ever in terms of international support (or lack thereof) … there was a sense that the evolving situation is having the added effect of emboldening the Palestinians.
The predicted result offered up in three separate conversations: that the Palestinians will declare independence unilaterally. (I’m not recommending this approach — just reporting what they said.) And, in the words of one diplomat who is in regular contact with the Palestinians, “much sooner than you might think.”
It seems plausible. They have been making noises in this vein for a couple years and the volume has been dialed up recently. And the theory among these close observers of the situation is that right now, perhaps more than at any time in recent history, the likelihood of much global pushback seems low.
— Steve Clemons