When John McCain was ahead and many Obama supporters were in the dumps, convinced that Sarah Palin would secure for the GOP four more years in the White House, I said that politics in America never goes in a straight line — particularly lately.
At the same time, the Obama team — which was on the verge of sorting out White House office assigments and wondering if the Bush pols were going to take the “O” keys off of keyboards — was just inevitably inevitable, just over the top confident. That is part of what did in Hillary Clinton’s campaign and overconfidence could undermine Obama.
But some quick numbers. FiveThirtyEight.com, an electoral map watcher, has Obama up 312 electoral votes over McCain at 226.
Gallup’s daily tracking poll has Obama up nationally at 48% over McCain at 44%.
InTrade’s prediction market, which has had McCain up for a while after Obama’s big slide down from 60%, has McCain down a little at 48.3 and Obama at 50.2. But InTrade has a new electoral map feature (that I like) with Obama at 278 electoral college votes and McCain at 260.
More soon — off to the Senate for this event on the economy.
— Steve Clemons