It is fascinating that Senator Frist had Senator John McCain join him in a pro-Bolton press conference the other day, and I have no doubt that John McCain will vote in favor of cloture on Bolton and would probably support John Bolton.

There are two reasons why this cloture vote on Bolton is taking place today. First, Frist wants to try and paint Democrats opposing John Bolton as obstructionists, but the media covering the Bolton nomination are clearly not letting Frist have his way on that claim.

Debate began at 5 p.m. on the Bolton cloture vote, and a vote is scheduled at 6 p.m. but may come as early as 5:30 p.m. if the entire debate time is not used.

Stay tuned. . .

The Bolton market at TradeSports.com is dropping dramatically. The chances of Bolton now getting through as Ambassador to the United Nations are measured by the market at 45% chance of confirmation.

There is talk of a recess appointment for John Bolton bubbling everywhere which is the first serious admission by the main stream media that efforts to oppose Bolton have the edge. The media for more than two months has constantly parroted the line that Bolton was still likely to be confirmed.

I’ve been off at a board and staff retreat of the New America Foundation and just back to town today — so apologies for being offline. Today, the second attempt to secure cloture on the John Bolton nomination as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations will occur at 6 p.m.

I’m off to the Claremont Resort to spend weekend with Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt, Francis Fukuyama, Christine Todd Whitman, Walter Mead, Steve Rattner, and other interesting folks. I will be watching matters in the Bolton arena very closely — particularly for any late-day breaking news out of the Karl Rove operation.

Rumors are bubbling again that the White House may be cooking up a “package” that they think might appeal to the Democrats — opening the way for a potential vote on Bolton. . .but these sorts of rumors have bubbled before with nothing coming.