By Steve Clemons

Debate began at 5 p.m. on the Bolton cloture vote, and a vote is scheduled at 6 p.m. but may come as early as 5:30 p.m. if the entire debate time is not used.

Stay tuned. . .

The Bolton market at TradeSports.com is dropping dramatically. The chances of Bolton now getting through as Ambassador to the United Nations are measured by the market at 45% chance of confirmation.

There is talk of a recess appointment for John Bolton bubbling everywhere which is the first serious admission by the main stream media that efforts to oppose Bolton have the edge. The media for more than two months has constantly parroted the line that Bolton was still likely to be confirmed.

I’ve been off at a board and staff retreat of the New America Foundation and just back to town today — so apologies for being offline. Today, the second attempt to secure cloture on the John Bolton nomination as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations will occur at 6 p.m.

I’m off to the Claremont Resort to spend weekend with Google’s CEO Eric Schmidt, Francis Fukuyama, Christine Todd Whitman, Walter Mead, Steve Rattner, and other interesting folks. I will be watching matters in the Bolton arena very closely — particularly for any late-day breaking news out of the Karl Rove operation.

Rumors are bubbling again that the White House may be cooking up a “package” that they think might appeal to the Democrats — opening the way for a potential vote on Bolton. . .but these sorts of rumors have bubbled before with nothing coming.

I’m writing this from the Red Carpet Lounge in San Francisco International Airport and have been offline today while I flew across country, but all the news looks good. This just came in from The Hill‘s E-News: GOP Action on Bolton Stalls Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.

oops, I mean Batman Begins.

Ok. . .A legitimate question might arise as to why Senate Select Intelligence Committee Chairman Pat Roberts would behave so rudely and presumptiously towards his colleagues, Democrat or not, in this inquiry into the names of U.S. officials on the NSA intercepts. TWN has learned how the idea was hatched.