Running and Limping in South Carolina and Nevada Tonight

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totten lowman nevada caucus.jpg
Hillary Clinton supporters Warren Lowman and Russell Totten caucus for Hillary Clinton in Carson City, Nevada and sent this picture into The Washington Note
Hillary Clinton wins the popular vote in Nevada’s Democratic caucus, but Obama’s team may be suggesting that he won because he may have pulled one more delegate than she did.
While Romney and Paul placed first and second in Nevada, the real race tonight for Republicans is in South Carolina.
John McCain — at the time of this writing — leads by what looks to me a sizable margin, but none of the networks will call Huckabee the 2nd place finisher. Romney is far back and trails Fred Thompson by a bit with 54% of precincts reporting.
A quick back of the envelope analysis leads one to think that there is a chance that neither Obama nor Clinton will break away from one another and that they’ll be at near parity (what in Japanese is called hakuchu) for quite a long time. Some strategists are wondering whether this gives John Edwards a king-maker role at the convention if neither Obama nor Clinton secure enough delegates to win the nomination outright.
And on the Republican side, McCain clearly has the sizzle — and Huckabee just got gut-punched, as things look at this moment anyhow. With the first state in the South possibly going to McCain — and with him also taking New Hampshire — McCain is showing that he has regional legs that none of the other candidates have.
— Steve Clemons

Comments

11 comments on “Running and Limping in South Carolina and Nevada Tonight

  1. söve says:

    söve fiyatlari, söve malzemeleri, söve firmalari, söve uygulamasi.

    Reply

  2. marc says:

    I agree with pissedoffamerican. Ron Paul coming in second in Nevada, despite the media censorship, is the big story of the day. Apparently, Steve and the MSM don’t agree. Wierd.

    Reply

  3. rich says:

    One fact mitigating against Edwards ability to act as a kingmaker is the radical disconnect between popular vote results and the actual distribution of delegates. Longstanding practice, right?
    But problematic, and one the time is ripe for changing.
    John Edwards beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa, coming in second. But he received fewer delegates. That’s gotta stop. Or else, why would Democrats who believe in democracy and believe in America—vote for a nominee who went along with that sorta betrayal of democracy?
    Manipulation of process is making both Parties, and the federal courts and relevant statutes, look really, really bad right now. This is the last thing this country needed.

    Reply

  4. Dirk says:

    Steve,
    Could you ask your good friend, the “genius” Jim Pinkerton, to switch to the party front runner if his joining the Huckabee campaign doesn’t result in success.
    I don’t know if those were Jim’s policy suggestions, such as tying the Bible to the Constitution and the Confederate flag endorsement, but his culinary tips have really made an impact in the Bay Area here. I personally spent Saturday combing garage sales for a popcorn popper and a BB gun.

    Reply

  5. Tony Foresta says:

    Life is strange. Democrats are foolish to slash at eachother, or bicker amongst ourselves. The critical issues impacting the peoples lives, and the policies and decisions that will either advance or hinder America, are prosecuted through the otherwordly endeavors of the peoples congress, courts, and the offices of the executive. Theoretorichly, the people have influence in the conduct of the government, (the congress, courts, and offices of the executive), though in practical reality and actual application – the people have absolutely zero influence in the conduct of the government, and – more disturbing – select cabals, cliques, cults, klans, and cronies in or beholden to the fascists in the Bush government, expropriate extrodinary powers, and heretofore unknown unknown authorities, and subvert, dismantle, and redefine the constitution.
    Better to focus on the fascists who ruthlessly raping and pillaging poor and middleclass Americanns and profiteering wantonly in and from the nefarious process. Democrat on democrat combat is self destructive and a rank distraction.
    Democrats –
    anyoneofthem – have superior idea’s, policies, and solutions.
    Democrats –
    anyoneofthem should be focusing on policies and idea’s that will confront the many crisis confronting America, and also on the failures, incompetence criminal behaviors and machinations, wanton profiteering, treasons, and betrayals of the peoples trust and goodfaith, the rank preversion and reegineering of the Constitution, and the ruthless betrayal of every principle that formally defined America.
    Close ranks. Hold hands. Reach out and touch people. Defeat and dethrone the fascists.
    Democrat on democrat tangles are senseless and fruitless. Focus on policies, ideas, and holding the fascists in the Bush government accountable.
    “Deliver us from evil!”

    Reply

  6. jackifus says:

    Note that McCain has LOST the Republican vote in all races – he’s only won any state because Independents break for him.
    TPM has a good piece on it:
    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/064228.php
    Romney’s overall delegate lead has been extended by tonights results. It is Romney who appears to be the likely GOP candidate.
    Unfortunately, his positions are statist to the extreme.
    note:
    http://www.boston.com/news/politics/2008/specials/CandidateQA/question4/
    rgds,
    Jack

    Reply

  7. cherish says:

    Hakuchu?
    Gazunhai.

    Reply

  8. Bill R. says:

    No annointing the nominee until the end of the process. I think you are right, Steve. Both candidates have the capacity to raise money, have good organization and solid support. We’re in for a marathon.And I think Edwards has an important voice, that deserves to be heard even if he doesn’t win the nomination.

    Reply

  9. Robert Morrow says:

    I think Nevada today showed where the real libertarians, freedom lovers and Constitutionalists are located in the USA: Nevada, with Ron Paul’s 2nd place finish at about 13%. It sure is not New Hampshire. The next time someone tells me NH, the “Live Free or Die” state is for small government, I am just going to laugh after what happened to Ron Paul there on Jan. 8th.
    Thank-you, Nevada, for carrying that banner.

    Reply

  10. ElectoPundit says:

    Great post Steve. It’s looking more and more like McCain vs. Clinton.
    I’ve done an analysis of the Democratic delegate race that people might find interesting. It’s what I believe Obama needs to do to win the nomination, state-by-state, must notably winning California. It’s quite a tall order. I’ll have the Republican race up tomorrow on my blog.
    http://electopundit.blogspot.com/2008/01/democratic-delegate-race.html

    Reply

  11. PissedOffAmerican says:

    Gee, Ron Paul came in second, despite a vicious swiftboating campaign being lodged against him by both sides of the aisle, and despite being effed out of being able to participate in all the debates, and despite being ignored by the media?
    Think what this guy could of done if his policy stances were publicized like the rest of the candidate’s were, and he was given the same media attention? Anyone that thinks the results are determined at the ballot booths is an idiot. The media chooses our President at the behest of the global corporate conglomerates.
    Then, of course, there’s Diebold and ES&S, and our “representatives” utter failure to secure the electoral process.
    The whole process is a joke without a punchline.
    And the joke is on us.

    Reply

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