Al Qaeda Not a Top Risk for 2010?

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bin laden.jpg
Business Week recently published Eurasia Group’s “Top Global Risks of 2010.”
I am always impressed with Eurasia Group President and Foreign Policy blogger Ian Bremmer, who provided a tour de force of global events at the New America Foundation last year.
As for the “Top Global Risks,” mostly familiar faces and countries here, but a couple of surprises.
Back in April, Bremmer said that the U.S. Congress represented the single biggest political risk to the global economy. Now the U.S.-China relationship is #1.
Iraq is listed as a “red herring.” Eurasia Group’s analysis is very sanguine. They say that

Compared to what we’ve seen before–and what might have happened–the overall story is remarkably positive. For the markets, Iraq is suddenly an opportunity. Institutions are becoming legitimate (even with the unresolved Kurdish issue), the army is starting to function, and most important, political leaders from all communities are beginning to recognize the value of Iraq’s tremendous natural resource base from which all can benefit if they make compromises to maintain the country’s stability. For all the basic governance problems, there’s very little chance of Iraq becoming a failed state at this point. As recently as a year ago, that constituted a meaningful risk.

Iran, “fiscal divergence” in the Eurozone, U.S. financial regulation and Japan (another surprise) round out the top 5 political risks.
Somehow neither ‘Al Qaeda” nor “international terrorism” made the list.
Turkey was chosen as the tenth greatest political risk. Eurasia Group sees Turkey drifting further from Europe. I am hoping Germany and France will prevent this from happening, but we’ll see.
You can view the slide show here.
— Ben Katcher

Comments

32 comments on “Al Qaeda Not a Top Risk for 2010?

  1. nadine says:

    “Abbas and his team … plan to sit back and watch while U.S. pressure slowly squeezes the Israeli prime minister from office. “It will take a couple of years,” one official breezily predicted. Abbas rejects the notion that he should make any comparable concession — such as recognizing Israel as a Jewish state, which would imply renunciation of any large-scale resettlement of refugees.”
    “Instead, he says, he will remain passive. “I will wait for Hamas to accept international commitments. I will wait for Israel to freeze settlements,” he said. “Until then, in the West Bank we have a good reality . . . the people are living a normal life.” In the Obama administration, so far, it’s easy being Palestinian.”
    Jackson Diehl, quoting Abu Mazen in the Washington Post May 9, 2009
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/28/AR2009052803614.html
    Like Abu Mazen says, the West Bankers are living a normal life, for now. American-trained PA police are keeping order and business is booming. It could all change if their leaders ordered a third intifada, but as Abu Mazen says, he has no intentions of intifada or negotations (the Palestinians like to do both together) …instead he intends to set and whine about how oppressed he is until Obama gives him more freebies. And that’s exactly what he has been doing.
    POS, to Abu Mazen you are just another useful idiot.

    Reply

  2. Carroll says:

    AMEN! OUTRAGED..AMEN
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    “Anyway, these are the kids I feel sorriest for, and I’ve seen it
    over and over in working with anti-war veterans. Good kids
    from the sticks trying to better themselves who get swept up in
    the machinations of the Cheneys of the world.
    Disgusting. Beyond disgusting.
    And I hope that the people who put him there go to hell.”
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
    Me too. There are two Marine bases near us, I see a lot of these young guys. It is criminal.

    Reply

  3. PissedOffAmerican says:

    What’s the difference between Obama’s anti-terrorism policies and Bush’s?
    Jacob Sullum | January 6, 2010
    One of the Bush administration’s most pernicious legacies is the never-ending War on Terrorism, a perpetual state of emergency that supposedly authorizes the president to break the law, abridge civil liberties, and ignore due process, all under a cloak of secrecy. Last week former Vice President Dick Cheney accused the Obama administration of forsaking Bush’s War on Terrorism. If only it were true.
    continues….
    http://reason.com/archives/2010/01/06/the-meaning-of-ists

    Reply

  4. PissedOffAmerican says:

    New Settlement in East Jerusalem – a Danger to the Peace Process
    05/01/2010
    It was announced this morning, that the Jerusalem municipality planning committee has decided to approve the establishment of a new Jewish settlement near the Mount of Olives. This neighborhood named “Beit Orot” encompases a plan to build four residential buildings so to inhabit 24 Jewish families
    After the settlements Ma’ale Zeitim, City of David, Sheikh Jarrah and construction at Sheppard Hotel, this new settlement named “Beit Orot” is another provocation of extremist settlement activity in the heart of a Palestinian neighborhood in East Jerusalem.
    Peace Now: “The establishment of this neighborhood is a historic mistake that will hurt the ability to reach a diplomatic solution with the Palestinians. The Jerusalem Mayor is insitiant in his attempts to turn the Eastern side of Jerusalem into a battle ground between extreme right settlers and Palestinian residents – similar to the situation today in Hebron”.
    It should be recalled that 25 years ago the mayor at the time Teddy Kolek, declared this same piece of land in A-Tur as the grounds for a new school for East Jerusalem Palestinian children. After a while, American Irwin Moskowitz, patron of the settlers in East Jerusalem, bought the land and the compound was taken over by yeshiva students.
    The school for Palestinian children was never built.
    http://www.peacenow.org.il/site/en/peace.asp?pi=693&docid=4520
    No preconditions, eh, Hillary? Just what the hell will be left for the Palestinians when you posturing frauds finally admit that Israel OWNS each and every one of you pathetic cowards?

    Reply

  5. PissedOffAmerican says:

    “Geeze, if the occupation were half so dreadful for the poor, poor Palestinians….”
    http://ingaza.wordpress.com/
    tragic smile
    January 6, 2010
    Nidal crouches by the front door, looks up and smiles with bright eyes as we walk past. Bright eyes, a large grin, and that is all.
    Nothing strikes me as unusual in the ten year old when he doesn’t leap up to greet us as most kids do. Maybe he is pre-occupied with his thoughts, an unseen toy. Maybe he is tired.
    Only when we come back out of the bombed-out house 30 minutes later do I notice he is still crouched in the same hunched position, still quiet.
    He sees us and again flashes a bright grin. Irresistible.
    “He doesn’t speak,” says his grandfather, Saleh Abu Leila. “And he can’t walk normally. In fact, his mind is gone,” he says, summarizing Nidal’s state post-war on Gaza.
    Abu Nidal comes over. “I’ve got 5 kids. Thank God only Nidal has been affected.”
    He refers to the heaviest days of Israeli shelling and bombardment in their region: Attatra, northwestern Gaza, one of the hardest-hit regions in the Strip.
    Many of the greatest tragedies which unfolded during the 23 day Israeli massacre of Gaza did so in Attatra, where ambulances were prevented from reaching the wound, targeted by Israeli shooting and shelling (and medics consequently were killed and injured), and where white phosphorous rained down, burning children, women, men, elderly, killing, choking.
    Abu Nidal’s house was among the ravaged. The top floor, where the Abu Leila family lived, has been gutted by phosphorous fire and destabilized by shelling. Israeli soldiers’ sniper holes mar almost every available wall, and the ceiling leaks water, furthering rendering the home uninhabitable. Since the Israeli war on Gaza, the Abu Saleh’s have lived in tents, now in their second winter of living on the sand.
    “When the Israelis shelled our house, there was also heavy tank shooting in the area. There were Israeli tanks all around. So much noise, so much danger. Nidal couldn’t take it.”
    Prior to the war on Gaza, Nidal was a normal young boy, running, as mischievous as the next. That much is evident in his smile.
    He now walks with a wobbled gait, sits with a droop, and only seems to concentrate when his father encourages him to do so.
    “We took him to doctors in Gaza, but they say he cannot be treated here. He needs to get help outside,” Abu Nidal said. “Can you please help, somehow?”
    How many parents are asking that question? Yasmin’s mother is. After seeing her sister Hanin shot dead, Yasmin’s mind broke. She receives some therapy from visiting doctors now and then, but is otherwise tragically altered.
    The article “Vast majority of Gaza children suffer PTSD symptoms” notes:
    The most recent study, “Trauma, grief and PTSD in Palestinian children victims for war on Gaza” by the Gaza Community Mental Health Programme, revealed that in the aftermath of the winter assault on Gaza, an unbelievable 91.4 percent of children in Gaza displayed symptoms of moderate to very severe PTSD. Meanwhile, only about one percent of the children showed no signs of PTSD.
    Continues…
    http://ingaza.wordpress.com/
    Nadine, why don’t you shag your bigoted hate filled racist ass over to Israel?
    And stay there.

    Reply

  6. PissedOffAmerican says:

    “Geeze, if the occupation were half so dreadful for the poor, poor Palestinians….”
    Nadine, haven’t you figured out yet that the overwhelming majority of people here know that you are full of shit? Despicably so, as a matter of fact. Kind of, well, on the level of a racist maggot.

    Reply

  7. nadine says:

    If Arafat had accepted the Taba Accords, Halamish would have been destroyed and returned to the Palestinians Jew-free in 2001, along with 80% of the Israeli settlements. Maybe Arafat should have accepted the offer?
    Geeze, if the occupation were half so dreadful for the poor, poor Palestinians as they like to make out, you’d think they would have agreed to Taba or made some other settlement.
    But when it comes time to get off their duffs and negotiate, then suddenly their situation is not so bad, quite endurable in fact. It’s certainly not bad enough to compel them to accept that Israel is not going to go away or become an Arab state any time soon. They seized with joy on the excuse Obama handed them about the settlement freeze and will stay away from the table for the rest of his administration.
    These demonstrations are just part of the kabuki theatre to get support and donations from useful idiots in the West. Check out the per-capita foreign aid receipts of those Palestinians, and you will notice that they are not so poor after all. They’ll get no pressure from Obama. He says they “deserve” a state. They’re cool with that. “We deserve! We deserve! Gimme! Gimme!” Why should they ever compromise and accept Israel? Obama says they don’t have to, the dope. So the “never compromise” policy continues, along with the incitement. They just named a main square in Ramallah after a female Palestinian terrorist who massacred 40 Israelis in the 1970s. Not a peep from Obama. He’s cool with that.

    Reply

  8. samuelburke says:

    i love watching what is starting to look like a full court press on
    israel.
    abusing palestinians in the name of the jews for sixty years or
    more is just not right and actually despicably wrong.

    Reply

  9. PissedOffAmerican says:

    Check this out. Heres our Secretary Of State swapping bullshit with Jordanian Foreign Minister Nasser Judeh, and answering questions from the press.
    http://www.isria.com/pages/8_January_2010_145.php
    Both Clinton and Judeh take on the I/P issue, stressing that time is of the essence to resume negotiations. Yet neither one of them make the common sense observation that Israel is grabbing land at an exponential rate, and consequently derailing ANY hopes for a resumption of negotiations. Hillary vomits up her usual crap about “no preconditions”, which we all know means no PALESTINIAN preconditions, while not even bothering to note Israel’s continued settlement expansion and evictions that are taking place despite Netanyahu’s LIES about a “settlement freeze”. So, the AIPAC darling says she wants a resumption of talks “with no preconditions”, while Israel continues to steal land. So I guess its ALRIGHT for Israel to steal land, eh, and we should just expect the Palestinians to come to the table and negotiate in good faith???
    Screw Hillary and Obama. If they are too much the cowards to make DEMANDS of Israel, then their talk of renewed peace negotiations is just bullshit posturing. How fuckin’ stupid do they think the Palestinians are? And do they think the rest of the world, PARTICULARY the Muslim global community, are buying this bullshit?? With every passing day, Obama’s Cairo speech is being shown to be insincere horseshit.
    And they hate us because of our freedoms? Right.
    Meanwhile…..
    http://palestinenote.com/cs/blogs/news/archive/2010/01/08/20-west-bank-protestors-injured-by-israeli-army.aspx
    20 West Bank protestors injured by Israeli army
    Jonathan Pollak, a founding member of Anarchists Against the Wall, reports that Israeli forces opened fire on civilians demonstrating against the settlers who have taken over their property in the West Bank. At least 20 people were injured.
    Below is the press release he sent out this afternoon (Friday):
    As part of a recent surge in popular protest in the West Bank, about 300 demonstrators occupied and blocked the main road in near the Halamish settlement for over two hours. The demonstrators, twenty of which were injured by rubber-coated bullets, protested recent land grabs.
    About 300 people took to the street today in the West Bank village of Nabbi Saleh, north-west of Ramallah, in protest of recent land grab by the adjacent Jewish-only settlement of Halamish. The protesters occupied and blocked the main street leading to the settlement, and amidst clouds of tear gas and whizzing rubber-coated bullets, managed to hold it for over two hours. A group of demonstrators also managed to reach the area that was recently taken over by settlers.
    Settlers who came down from Halamish threw stones and shot live rounds of demonstrators. Soldiers who were present took no actions to stop them. Following the demonstration the army invaded Nabbi Salleh, where clashes ensued.
    Twenty of Nabbi Saleh’s residents were struck by rubber-coated bullets, and dozens suffered from tear gas inhalation.
    Bassem Tamimi, one organizers of the demonstration said that “For three weeks we have been prevented from reaching our land for because of the settlers who occupied it. In any reasonable place, we would be allowed to just drive them out by force, but they have the army on their side even though the law is on our side. Under the occupation we are not even allowed to merely protest.”
    Demonstrations were also held today in N’ilin, Bil’in – where a journalist and a demonstrator were lightly injured, and in alMaasara where the army invaded the village.

    Reply

  10. PissedOffAmerican says:

    I honestly believe Kotz is certifiably insane.
    But he would sure make a great advertisement for Webster’s.

    Reply

  11. kotzabasis says:

    Norheim
    The fact that you posted two replies one after another reveals how intellectually insecure you are in your argument. Your ripostes to my comment are intellectually and psychologically despicable and do not deserve, at least by me, a comprehensive counter-riposte. Just an example from your “thieves” ‘thought experiment’ that shows clearly the poverty of your psychology and imagination. If potential thieves live in a community that is in a state of starvation one need not be a Tiresias to predict “when, where, and what they’ll steal.”

    Reply

  12. Outraged American says:

    I just walked outside to find a young man on R&R from
    Afghanistan fixing my neighbor’s car. He is her cousin. This
    (my neighbor) is the former meth head who my brother is letting
    live with him as a roommate while she gets back on her feet, and
    whose five-year-old I help take care of.
    The cousin, a native Arizonan (read hick) is back from
    Afghanistan for the next two weeks. He was baby faced. Turns
    out he was 20, but seriously looked 15. He’s been in
    Afghanistan for the last four months and is a mechanic who
    drives behind convoys in case they break down.
    Needless to say, I was intrigued. I asked him what he thought of
    the war in Afghanistan and he said, “I just can’t figure out why
    we’re there.” I asked him about what his comrades felt and he
    said that it was the same, that no one in his unit really knew why
    we were in Afghanistan.
    When I asked him about the Afghans he said that they were nice
    and he got along well with the Afghan drivers.
    He said that if he were an Afghan he would fight us, and
    understood why they were fighting back, but then added if it
    comes down to him or them he would fight for himself.
    He did seem genuinely sympathetic to the Afghans.
    I asked him why he joined the military and he said, and I’m
    quoting, “To better myself.”
    I asked him where he’d been. He said he didn’t know. That he
    was stationed out of Bagram but then just drove. He said that
    they never knew where they were going or where they were.
    Not the brightest bulb, but I did admire that he, rather than
    become a drug addict, like so many of the kids I taught here in
    Phoenix 25 years ago, had actually done something.
    Anyway, these are the kids I feel sorriest for, and I’ve seen it
    over and over in working with anti-war veterans. Good kids
    from the sticks trying to better themselves who get swept up in
    the machinations of the Cheneys of the world.
    Disgusting. Beyond disgusting.
    After I got back from walking the dogs I took him some Kahlua
    brownies that I made last night and wished him luck. He’s
    going to need it. Nice kid. I hope he comes back sane and
    intact.
    And I hope that the people who put him there go to hell.

    Reply

  13. Kathleen Grasso Andersen says:

    POA…thank heaven for Helen Thomas…love the lady.

    Reply

  14. JohnH says:

    Puzzling events in Yemen–
    “A year ago, Yemeni President Ali Abdallah Saleh
    made the startling revelation that his country’s
    security forces apprehended a group of Islamists
    linked to the Israeli intelligence forces.”
    http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/LA09Ak02.
    html
    “Into this chaotic domestic picture comes the
    January 2009 announcement, prominently featured in
    select Internet websites, that al-Qaeda, the
    alleged global terrorist organization created by
    the late CIA-trained Saudi, Osama bin Laden, has
    opened a major new branch in Yemen for both Yemen
    and Saudi operations.”
    “After declaring that the Yemen internal strife
    was Yemen’s own affair, President Obama ordered
    air strikes in Yemen. The Pentagon claimed its
    attacks on December 17 and 24 killed three key al
    Qaeda leaders but no evidence has yet proven this.
    Now the Christmas Day Detroit bomber drama gives
    new life to Washington’s “War on Terror” campaign
    in Yemen. Obama has now offered military
    assistance to the Saleh Yemen government.”
    http://www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net/Geopolitics_
    __Eurasia/Chokepoint_Yemen/chokepoint_yemen.html
    What a curious set of coincidences! Go figure!
    No wonder the Eurasia Group doesn’t consider Al
    Qaeda a significant threat!

    Reply

  15. Kathleen Grasso Andersen says:

    The Guardian has a very insightful piece on GWOT, Al-Qaeda, and risk assessments…
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/global/2010/jan/03/yemen-anti-terrorism-rendition-security
    Welcome to the Pavlacracy…

    Reply

  16. Kathleen Grasso QAdersen says:

    On Rahm and Isreal. if Rahm had really meant what he said to Davan, the US would have backed the Goldstone Report and forced the issue of negotiations…but Team Bo always tucks tail first and then talks big….Gaza is the latest obstacle to negotiations, as is the US/Isreali refusal to accept the results of the Palestinina election of Hamas….

    Reply

  17. Kathleen Grasso Andersen says:

    On OBL, if anyone wants to know where he is, they should attend the next Carlye Group business meetings…On the reasons OBL gave for 911, this is an interesting new book, Footnotes on Gaza..
    http://www.truthdig.com/arts_culture/item/eunice_wong_on_footnotes_in_gaza_20100108/
    OA…thanxxxx…yUUUUm, on Rahmm exit stage right…Rahm was always a Clinton person, so I suspect he was wooed by BO/Teddy to support BO, with the promise of the WH COS thing….now that Burris is a No-Go, I expect Rahm to run for the US Senate from Illinois and work for a leadershop role in the Senate…especially now that Teddy is gone…there’s a “boss vacuum”…BO’s star is without its strongest proponent, Teddy….so if Rahm is leaving, it’s because he wants to be his own man again and not tie his future to someone else’s political chances.

    Reply

  18. Sand says:

    Even if Rahm is not exactly flavor of the month — he’s still a political survivor, with powerful friends. Whether it was gonna be an Obama or Hills WH I have the feeling we were going to see his ugly mug popping and making trouble up regardless — same with the resurrection of Mr Ross!
    However, with all the political heat going on at the moment with the ‘quick’ succession of some old school democrats looking decidely pissed off and jumping ship [or being pushed?] maybe Rahm really is becoming a political liability [one can only hope].
    –Sibel on Rambo’s [& Chicago] Skeletons — :
    http://www.boilingfrogspost.com/2009/12/30/chicago-not-the-musical-but-the-action-suspense-docudrama/#more-1288

    Reply

  19. PissedOffAmerican says:

    I see Helen Thomas dared ask the White House’s spokesweasel just why it is that these nasty radical heathens hate us so. The spokesweasel’s tongue promptly tied itself in a tight square knot, that was only undone when the questions got back on script.
    But fear not, I see the golden tongued Omama has assured us that these dastardly Islamist demons will not wrest our values nor our freedoms from our righteous grasp. This is reassuring, as I’ve been worried he might put a stop to our race to reach the two million dead Muslims mark, and actually indict and prosecute those that forcefully sodomize and torture in the name of American values.
    God bless American values, Vaseline, and White Phosphorous.

    Reply

  20. Paul Norheim says:

    The problem with thieves, Kotz, is that no one usually knows when, where, or what
    they`ll steal. Would you say that a thief would be even less predictable if he
    believed in Allah?
    Or does Allah only influence the action if the actor sincerely believes that it`s the
    act of Allah?
    Were the Russian anarchist terrorists of the 19th century and members of PLO during
    the 1970`s within reach of the “calculus of reason” – since they were secular
    atheists?
    I have to admit that your theory raises a lot of interesting metaphysical questions.

    Reply

  21. Paul Norheim says:

    “terrorism is immeasurable” (Kotzabasis)
    What is that supposed to mean? Terrorism is a tactic, like air strikes, attacks
    from the sea, or tanks rolling into a city – and not more or less
    “immeasurable” than other means.
    “Al-Qaeda and international terrorism” is impossible to estimate “by the
    calculus of reason”.
    Meaning what? That the jihadists are irrational or believe in Allah, and thus
    are somehow completely unpredictable, like angles and demons and jinns?
    Ever been in a church, Kotz? Or a madhouse? I have been in the first and worked
    in the latter, and found most people in both places rather predictable.
    “Islamic terrorism is the ‘act of God’ par excellence since its practitioners
    reverently believe that they are executing the orders of Allah. (…) And the
    great danger of terrorism lies, unlike natural disasters which are
    intermittent, in the fact that it’s a continuous threat without knowing in
    advance where and when it will break out. But despite this hand of invisibility
    that perpetrates these murderous actions of terror, it can be defeated by
    intelligent and decisive action.”
    Less predictable than earth quakes and floods, because somehow Allah is giving
    the orders, and gods are unpredictable, uh?
    But despite being directed by the “invisible hand” (of Allah? or the faith of
    the believers?), and despite being a phenomenon outside the reach of human
    reasoning and calculus, international terrorism can be defeated “by intelligent
    and decisive action”. This may “put the mouse of doubt” in the hearts of the
    believers.
    What`s this, Kotz?
    Some kind of medieval demonology? You`re obviously beyond politics, ideology,
    or even geopolitical strategy here. Besides being perhaps the first non-
    polemical comment of yours, your words sound like pure, old fashioned
    apocalyptic mysticism, disguised as “anti-terrorism”. A bit like terrorist hero
    Ch`en`s thoughts in André Malraux` novel “Man`s fate” – but from the position
    of an obsessed police inspector.
    Fascinating.
    May I recommend catholicism or sufi meditations as a cure?

    Reply

  22. chumanist says:

    The doctrine of neo-geoplitics ushered in by the new era of the US war on terrorism has actually shrouded the mysteries (of many glaring questions) that need to be demystified by the liberal bold and astute public opinion makers in the west.

    Reply

  23. kotzabasis says:

    The reason that they are not in the list might be not because they are not a “top risk” but because terrorism is immeasurable. One must bear in mind that there are issues and events that can be estimated by the calculus of reason and others that cannot. Al-Qaeda and international terrorism fall in the latter category. There are no statistics for natural disasters, plagues, and deadly viruses of which one can make an estimate when, where, and to what degree they will break out, since they are said to be ‘acts of God’. Islamic terrorism is the ‘act of God’ par excellence since its practitioners reverently believe that they are executing the orders of Allah.
    No calculus of reason will ever measure the degree of fanaticism and its virus like spread in the Muslim communities inhabiting the world. And the great danger of terrorism lies, unlike natural disasters which are intermittent, in the fact that it’s a continuous threat without knowing in advance where and when it will break out. But despite this hand of invisibility that perpetrates these murderous actions of terror, it can be defeated by intelligent and decisive action. Eroding and continuously diminishing the ability of terrorists to be successful in their operations might put the mouse of doubt in their hearts nibbling at their belief that they are the instruments of Allah and thus gradually force them to abandon their eschatological cause.

    Reply

  24. Gray says:

    Hmm, actually I came here expecting to find an explanation by Steve about the replacement of the Japanese finance minister. After all, he is one of the most knowledgeable bloggers about all things Nippon, and usually can be relied on to cover important news from that region.
    Hmm, Steve, could you pls give some insights? Very appreciated!

    Reply

  25. Gray says:

    “Eurasia Group sees Turkey drifting further from Europe. I am hoping Germany and France will prevent this from happening, but we’ll see.”
    How shall we (Germans) do that? Face the truth, we simply can’t afford Turkey to join the EU! It’s nation of 76 million people (as big as Germany!), Germany has the biggest share of Turkish immigrants in all of Europe, many Turks have relatives here and/or speak our language, the standard of living here is higher than in Turkey, even for the jobless, and as EU citizen they would be elligible for the social net and all benefits here.
    Really, letting Turkey in would overwhelm our nation with new Turkish citizen, typically with low qualification and bad chances on the jobmarket (and the official unemployment rate now is 10%) ! It’s absolutely the same as if the US would adopt Mexico as the 51st state. You would never do that, so why do you expect us to commit economical and sociological suicide? THAT’S NUTS!

    Reply

  26. Dan Kervick says:

    While I’m happy to see more cold water thrown on the latest bout of Al Qaeda hysteria, I think it is worth noting that the Eurasia Group exists to advise the world’s most egregious exploiters on the best strategies for holding onto their existing money, and the best opportunities of making more of it, in a dynamic world filled with annoying and unpredictable plebians with a disturbing penchant for engaging in “politics”. Their concept of “risk” is thus relativized to those selective and avaricious concerns.
    Is a country making noises about taxing multinational corporations or nationalizing some privately owned assets to better feed and house a million people? That’s a BIG RISK.
    Is there a chance a few hundred thousand no-account plebians might be killed in some sort of attack? NOT necessarily a big risk. And if the attack increases the demand for weaponry across the globe, Eurasia Group’s clients might see such an attack as no risk at all, but an opportunity.

    Reply

  27. PissedOffAmerican says:

    Rahm Emanuel to Israeli diplomat: we’re tired of your government
    The following article was published in Yedioth Aharonoth on 6 January 2010
    The US administration is tired of you, the Israelis and Palestinians. You’re wasting precious time and are missing an opportunity to make peace. There is going to be a stage in which we’re simply going to give up on this endless conflict and leave you alone-said recently White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel to Yaki (Jacob) Dayan, the Israeli consul general in Los Angeles. The meeting between the two men occurred a number of weeks ago on the sidelines of a Jewish community event that was held in Los Angeles. A local Jewish leader introduced Emanuel to Dayan, and the two held a brief conversation about the peace process. Dayan reported the content of that conversation in a secret telegram to a very small number of top officials in Jerusalem.
    According to the report, the US administration is frustrated by the impasse and by its inability to bring about a resumption of the negotiations.
    Emanuel’s message to Dayan was simple: the Americans are tired and frustrated. They have gone out of their way to bring the parties to the negotiating table, but the parties are doing their utmost to refrain from talking with one another. You are missing an opportunity to make peace. You have to come to your senses and return to the negotiating table. We aren’t going to hold the talks for you. There is going to be a moment in which the United States will say ‘enough,’ and will disengage so as to address other problems around the world and at home.
    A spokesman in the Prime Minister’s Bureau said last night in response: “We do not normally divulge the content of diplomatic messages. Regarding the matter at hand, the statements that are the subject of your question did not contain any criticism of Prime Minister Netanyahu. The facts on the ground then and today as well prove the exact opposite: the Prime Minister’s Bureau is working in full coordination with the US administration in order to set the peace process in motion together, and this has been done while preserving mutual good working relations.”
    http://palestinenote.com/cs/blogs/blogs/archive/2010/01/06/rahm-emanuel-to-israeli-diplomat-we-re-tired-of-your-government.aspx

    Reply

  28. PissedOffAmerican says:

    Supposedly, Rahm’s I/P comments were made in a face to face with Dayan. Emanuel is denying he made the comments. It made press in Israel, but not so much here. If he did make the comment to Dayan, it might account for his moving on. Obama is such a coward when it comes to standing up to Israel, that I doubt he would abide such comments.
    What a smooth talker Obama is. His State Of The Boogie Man speech today was impressive. Too bad we have already learned he is full of shit. Its a real pity to waste such eloquent oration.

    Reply

  29. Carroll says:

    Hummm.. if Rham is exiting, 10 to 1 it’s because he got called on the carpet or caught doing or saying something un-Obama like or his reputation for being able to whip politicans around isn’t what it’s cracked up to be. He isn’t the kind who would give up being the “enforcer” in the most important office in the universe willingly.
    Rham has been giving interviews in which he was very mouthy lately about I/P. Saying the US is fed up with both I and P and etc..
    Seems he has hoof and mouth problems like Biden.

    Reply

  30. samuelburke says:

    this is from an interview of Douglas Valentine by Suzan Mazur.
    “Suzan Mazur: Are you familiar with the Eurasia Group?
    Started out as a mini-foreign policy association back in 1998,
    backed by the CIA – the so-called analyst side – and the Council
    on Foreign Relations. I attended some of their fascinating
    meetings. They invited a slew of officials and former officials of
    the FSU, as well as business leaders to speak – Boris Berezovsky,
    etc. There’s been a controversial Russian industrialist on the
    advisory board from the start.
    At some point they began charging $100 to attend meetings.
    And I got an angry phone call from EG because I’d contacted
    someone I met at one of the meetings regarding an interview.
    Apparently EG was now selling those contacts the CIA & CFR
    helped them establish. Eurasia Group has had some affiliation
    with Lehman Brothers and is considered the world’s largest
    political risk group. ”

    Reply

  31. Outraged American says:

    Murdoch’s NY POST is reporting Rahm Emanuel might exit as WH
    Chief-of-Staff.
    I know people who worked with his agent brother Ari, and NPR
    did a profile on him a few months back. Ari’s reputed to be a
    monster, and for one to get that reputation in Hollywood, Land
    of the Dragons/ Sociopaths, means one must be REALLY sick.
    Of course Rahm himself once sent a dead fish to someone who
    pissed him off.
    And this is who we have advising the President? Of course, even
    though I had no hope that Obama meant “change” his
    appointment of Rahm was the death knell.
    Emanuel Exit?
    Jan 7, 2009
    DC clairvoyants say Rahm Emanuel will leave as President
    Obama’s chief-of-staff in the not-too-distant future. Though
    once a congressman himself, Emanuel is said to be frustrated
    with lawmakers who won’t bend to his will. And his temper —
    similar to the Ari Gold-like eruptions of his super-agent
    brother, Ari Emanuel, in Hollywood — has not been well
    received in some quarters. The buzz was reinforced on “The
    McLaughlin Group” Sunday, when Rahm was labeled “Des tined
    for Political Oblivion by the End of 2010.” Obama’s fiercely loyal
    adviser Valerie Jarrett is said to be the frontrunner to take his
    place.
    Read more:
    http://tinyurl.com/yeppyrt

    Reply

  32. JohnH says:

    Guess Eurasia Group doesn’t watch enough Fox News.
    Otherwise, the bogeyman would top the threat list.
    It is interesting that Iran is #2, because the
    regime is “increasingly cornered.” To constitute a
    threat to the rest of the world, Iran would
    presumably have to do something. It’s hard to
    imagine, given the fact that this relatively small
    economy spends only 2.5% of its GDP on its military,
    what the regime might do that could pose any serious
    threat. In this case, it would appear that the
    Eurasia Group has been watching Fox News too much.

    Reply

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